FXUS64 KMEG 100501
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1201 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT THU SEP 9 2010/

UPDATE...

TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DUE TO LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
WARM FRONT REMAINS LOCATED FROM JONESBORO...TO MEMPHIS...TO
TUPELO. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH OVERNIGHT THUS THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL..AND WEST TENNESSEE. WILL BUMP UP LOWS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS LIKE MEM AND MKL WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT DROPPED AS
ANTICIPATED. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

KRM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT THU SEP 9 2010/

CURRENTLY THE REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE HAVE SLOWLY
LIFTED TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...WITH ONLY THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES SEEING PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA
HAVE REMAINED COOL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THE AREA WAS SEEING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S TO NEAR 90. A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH WAS DRAPED NEAR INTERSTATE
FORTY.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION FROM THE REMNANTS
OF HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO SEPARATE ITSELF FROM THE CENTER OF
THE CIRCULATION NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION
AREA HAS HAD A HARD TIME PROGRESSING EASTWARD...DUE TO LOW LEVEL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUD
COVER ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAS ALSO
THINNED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THUS...KEPT ONLY DEFINITE POPS IN THROUGH MID EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALSO INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS LOWERED SINCE THIS MORNING SO
HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE LATEST SHORT
TERM MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS WEAKENING TREND...AND EVEN
WITH A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH IN QPF'S THROUGH 06Z. HOWEVER...THIS
AREA IS UNDER A SEE TEXT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. THIS THREAT THOUGH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
BY MID EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NOT TOTALLY
CONVINCED ON GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S FOR FRIDAY AS
UPPER HEIGHTS STAY NEUTRAL AND SOME CLOUD COVER FROM HERMINE WILL
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. THUS HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS DEWPOINTS STAY
IN THE LOW 70S. HEAT INDICES FOR NOW APPEAR WILL STAY BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF THAT
IN THE HWO. MODELS LEANING TOWARDS THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN SATURDAY
NIGHT SO KEPT A SLIGHT THREAT OF RAIN IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE MIDWEST ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MID SEPTEMBER. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO BE DRY AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRAS AND A FEW TSRAS REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. LINGERING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING IN
THESE AREAS. KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALSO KEPT ONGOING MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE DAY AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

CCD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  93  77  94 /  40  30  20  50
MKL  68  89  72  91 /  50  40  20  50
JBR  70  90  73  89 /  60  30  20  50
TUP  71  93  73  93 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$