FXUS64 KOHX 071737 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1237 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday night) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Earlier this morning, a weakening area of showers and thunderstorms was clipping our far northwest. This activity remained sub severe. And now it's warm and muggy once again with current temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 80s so we will become more unstable as we reach into the afternoon hours. Dynamics are still quite weak and afternoon convective coverage will be limited. However, storms that fire could still reach severe limits as capes increase into the 2000-2500 j/kg range. A weakening front will be on approach tonight. This will lead to a line of convection which will push toward our northwestern counties around 9 pm or so. Still plenty of instability will be in place along with some shear as well. The activity will work across the area and reach our southern counties toward sunrise. Again, all severe types will be in play but the better chances appear to be across our northern half where the slight risk resides. On Wednesday, what appears to be a warm front will be lifting northward in the morning. This will bring us yet another potential threat of severe weather through about midday. In the afternoon, the warm front will shift the better focus of severe to our north across KY. This may hold through the afternoon but will only serve to allow us to warm up and destabilize even more. Wednesday night looks like the biggest of all the severe weather rounds. The primary catalyst will be a cold front with the fropa expected late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Prior to the fropa, it looks as though convection will fire in the prefrontal area as well as along and just ahead of the boundary. Excellent phasing of forcing, instability and shear looks likely. Mid level lapse rates support large hail so all types of severe are on the table. Timing looks like from 6 pm through 3 am, so a long night looks to be in store. Helicities are in the 150-300 range but the classic type of synoptic spring storm setup is not quite there. The upper pattern is zonal with some w-e elongation noted with the surface low. However, with the aforementioned strong phasing, the tornadic threat is still appreciable. Otherwise, flooding could also be concern, depending largely on how much rain occurs during the Wednesday morning/early afternoon earlier round. Near term temps continue to look warm through Thursday with 60s for lows and mostly lower 80s for highs. We will cool down some by Friday morning, behind the front, with upper 40s and lower 50s for lows. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 In the extended forecast, there will still be a few shower chances into the weekend along with cooler temperatures. This will be followed by warmer temps for early next week as some ridging returns. The cooler temps over the weekend will feature lows upper 40s to lower 50s, warming back up to around 60 degrees next week. Highs will be in the 70s for the weekend, and then lower 80s next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Warm and moist conditions will serve as fuel for convective development this taf cycle. Showers and thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon but should be rather hit or miss. A more organized band of showers and thunderstorms may move across the area after 00Z this evening. This round of storms may contain some gusty winds and small hail. Additional isolated to scattered activity will pick up once again after 12Z as a warm front lifts northward. Otherwise, IFR cigs may impact the area mostly between 00Z and 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 70 85 69 85 / 70 80 90 40 Clarksville 68 85 67 82 / 60 80 80 20 Crossville 64 79 63 78 / 80 80 90 80 Columbia 68 85 67 84 / 70 80 90 50 Cookeville 66 81 66 79 / 80 80 90 70 Jamestown 64 80 64 78 / 80 80 90 80 Lawrenceburg 68 85 67 84 / 70 70 100 50 Murfreesboro 68 85 67 84 / 70 80 90 50 Waverly 67 84 66 82 / 60 80 80 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....21