FXUS64 KOHX 260124
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
724 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 720 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

 - Light rain possible tonight over the western half of the mid
   state.

 - Showers move in Friday, increasing to storms on Saturday
   afternoon and evening. Rain totals could start piling up by
   Sunday morning with 2-3 inches possible Friday through Sunday.

 - Strong storms look much less likely on Saturday, but can not be
   ruled out just yet.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

Light showers are moving through the far northwest this evening.
They are a little farther east than what PoPs indicated so those
PoPs were scooted farther east. High res models show the coverage
will decrease as we move toward midnight. Thursday is looking good
for late December standards with highs in the mid 50s to around 60
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

Relatively quiet Christmas morning across the mid state with
temperatures already in the mid 50s. A few showers off to the west
are visible on radar, and still may see some of that light rain
make it into western zones this afternoon and evening. As the
upper trough continues to weaken today and tonight as it moves
northeast over the area, brief shortwave ridging will move in
Thursday, keeping temps warm. Cant rule out a stray light rain
shower during the day Thursday though in the far west, but nothing
impactful.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1049 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

The multiple shortwave troughs Friday and through the weekend are
still showing up on the models consistently, and have shown some
signs of strengthening. On Thursday night into Friday, the first
wave will move east from the southern Plains, bringing rain
especially early Friday morning but chances (60-80%) will continue
during the day. There will be breaks in the rainfall later on
Friday and Friday night, but the next shortwave comes in Friday
night into Saturday, which will keep the rain going. The third
wave looks to be stronger than the second, and before today's runs
looked like that would be the culprit for any strong to severe
thunderstorm threat for Saturday afternoon and evening. Models
have backed off slightly, but there is still a low chance that
instability makes it into our area. Ensembles and even
deterministic models keep the instability south and west with
latest runs, limiting the severe threat. The GFS and associated
ensembles are the runs that have the highest chance for severe,
with a stronger upper wave, deep layer shear, and instability
creeping closer to the mid state.

Models have been ramping up QPF with these waves over the weekend,
and now precip amounts are in the 1 to 3.5 inch range from Friday
through Sunday. Most of that rain looks to be Saturday and
Saturday night with the second and third waves. Some minor
flooding could be a concern, especially if models keep trending
this way with QPF.

As for next week, ensembles remain quite spread out on exact
timing and strength of the next round of showers and potential
storms, but warmer temps and an active pattern remain the only
high confidence items in next week's forecast through Jan 1. We
may finally get a cold front through the area after Jan 1 that
will bring temps back closer to seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. High to mid level clouds
will remain over the area through the period. Can't rule out a few
light sprinkles near KCKV through the overnight. Light
southeasterly winds under 5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      43  60  48  59 /  10  10  50  90
Clarksville    44  58  47  60 /  30  10  70  90
Crossville     36  55  41  53 /   0   0  10  70
Columbia       42  58  46  59 /  10  10  50  90
Cookeville     40  58  45  56 /  10   0  20  80
Jamestown      38  57  42  55 /  10  10  20  70
Lawrenceburg   42  58  46  57 /  10  10  40  80
Murfreesboro   42  60  48  59 /  10  10  40  80
Waverly        44  58  46  60 /  30  10  70  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Mueller