FXUS64 KOHX 260727
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
127 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

 - Rain chances for Sunday night have increased, although QPF is
   still quite low. Precipitation may switch over to snow or a
   wintry mix tonight before ending. No accumulations are
   expected.

 - Temperatures the next 7 days will remain at or above seasonal
   normals.

 - The next active weather system will bring widespread showers to
   Middle Tennessee late in the week and next weekend. QPF with
   this event is much more robust.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 109 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

High pressure centered over the southeast is quickly retreating
eastward and giving way to an inverted trough that is extending
northeastward from the Gulf Coast. The past few model cycles have
significantly increased our PoPs across Middle Tennessee for
tonight, although QPF is still quite low -- less than 0.1" in
areas north of I-40 and 0.1" to 0.25" in areas farther south. As
temperatures decrease overnight behind the departing surface
trough, showers may change over to snow, or at least evolve into a
wintry mix before ending. However, any type of wintry
precipitation will be short-lived and is not expected to
accumulate. High pressure will quickly build back into the region
on Monday, and temperatures through mid-week will continue to
increase.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 109 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025

The next active weather system will begin spreading showers into
Middle Tennessee Thursday or Thursday night, with rain chances
continuing into the weekend. At this time, total QPF for this
event falls between 1 and 2 inches across most of Middle
Tennessee. But there is still a great deal of discrepancy amongst
the individual models regarding timing of this system, so forecast
confidence is quite low. Looking ahead to the 6-10 day and 8-14
day outlooks, we can look forward to a prolonged period of above
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 948 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2025

With the dry air in place, it looks like it'll take awhile for
cigs to come down tomorrow. VFR until 20Z when MVFR will start to
spread west to east across the mid-state. All terminals will see
at least this. IFR possible towards the end of the cycle,
especially for SRB/CSV.

Winds will be light (less than 10 kts) throughout with a shift
from the southwest to west by 00Z/Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      47  31  48  31 /  10  40   0   0
Clarksville    45  26  46  30 /  10  30   0   0
Crossville     46  31  43  26 /  10  50  10   0
Columbia       47  32  48  29 /  10  50   0   0
Cookeville     47  31  44  27 /  10  40  10   0
Jamestown      46  28  42  26 /  10  40   0   0
Lawrenceburg   47  33  47  28 /  10  60  10   0
Murfreesboro   49  32  47  27 /  10  50  10   0
Waverly        46  28  46  29 /  10  40   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Unger