FXUS64 KOHX 131720
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1220 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

A surface low is currently located over Ohio and will move E
bringing a cold front across TN tonight. Ahead of the cold front
remains a slight chance for thunderstorm development across the
Cumberland Plateau this evening. This mornings sounding shows very
little moisture available over TN. This will be the limiting
factor with thunderstorm development. As SW flow increasing this
afternoon though, there may be just enough moisture to aid in
development. In addition, latest CAM solutions suggest steep low-
level lapse rates and strong winds aloft which would help promote
development. Right now, it seems like the best dynamics will be
after peak heating though, limiting any strong developments. In
general, thinking that any development will be very isolated and
limited to higher terrain, but if any storms can get going before
we lose our instability, locally strong winds will be possible.

Tonight, the associated cold front will quickly usher in a colder
and drier air mass. Monday will see highs struggling to get above
the mid 60s with N winds staying elevated around 10 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Another lobe of energy will pivot around the large scale eastern
CONUS trough on Tuesday bringing in even cooler air. The first
frost of the season remains on track for a large part of the area
Wednesday morning with lows dipping into the 30s as the winds lay
down for the night. If you don't get frost Wednesday morning,
you'll have another chance Thursday morning with lows a degree or
two colder than Wednesday morning. The large scale troughing will
push off the east coast on Thursday with upper ridging building
into the area on Friday. This will help temperatures climb back
into the 70s next weekend. Unfortunately, the long term forecast
looks dry. Maybe and that's a big maybe, we squeeze out a sprinkle
Tuesday evening as the reinforcing energy swings through the
area, but that's it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

No VIS or CIG restrictions expected through the TAF period. A
frontal bouondary will push through this evening with gusty
southwest winds to 20kts becoming northwest about 10kts through
tomorrow afternoon. There is low confidence in some showers
popping up later this evening as current radar trends suggest dry
air at the surface is keeping precipitation to a minimum. Best
(very low) chances for any development is over the plateau later
as the front moves through, and will amend if necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      50  67  45  63 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    45  66  42  61 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     42  60  37  56 /  30   0   0   0
Columbia       47  67  42  64 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     43  62  39  57 /  20   0   0   0
Jamestown      43  60  39  56 /  20   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   47  67  41  64 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   48  67  42  62 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        46  65  44  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....05